Note 4: SCIP

October 9th CS446 notes on SCIP = Stanford Computer Industry Project.
Subproject: Computer Software Industry Study started by Ed Feigenbaum, now managed by Avron Barr and Shirley Tesler. Bill Miller is the director.
Avron Barr:
The Software industry is healthy.
o Chips and harware are pervasive (cars, refrigerators, ...), because of the flexibility provided by the software.
US dominance due to Un.- Co. link, attitude towards intellectual property, value of a SW professional, entrpreneurism.
Unexpected non-concerns: Piracy, Foreign competition, Consolidation of vendors, channel access, lack of talented, educated labor force, lack of capital, quality (for now).
Concerns: the patent systems, Fundamental research must continue, SW production still a craft. Hard to balance innovation, time-to-market, and cost. Funders want killer app. Concerns about the procces of software production, ...

Motivation for buying computers is software, as Visicalc, entertainment.
Waiting for a new `killer app.' No `Charlie Chaplin' yet.
HW vendors' cost is 70% and Customers' cost is 80% software.
Software was oriented towards productivity of existing tasks.
Today there are new applications, oriented towards marketing advantages, as Federal Express, circle dialing at MCI, goods selection at Levi's.
Software industry (5% of US GDP), total about $100B. Top 5 SW companies: IBM, Fujitsu, EDS, Microsoft, Nintendo: IBM 18B, Fujitsu 8B, EDS (DP services) 8B, Microsoft 4B, Nintendo 3, ...

Self-identified software professionals work mainly (3/4) outside of the Computer and SW services industry.
Services is big growing faster than Systems, games is growing.
Mirosoft grew to 1993 at 73%/an. compounded.
Rate of change of chip performance is still inceasing.

Software in a box is as old in the PC - late 1960.
Market share of US is large 57% services, 75% products.
US dominance due to: research funding, Software is real, not as much pirated here, support of entrepreneurs (status, venture capital, acceptance of failure), youth is accepted, tolerance of `good enough' quality.
o ``Defects can fall below the bar''.

Concerns: Software product management is hard. Product plasticity, very small literature. Pain due to time-to-market pressure, friction on teams, ...

Suggestion: Look at Microsoft Foundation conference videotape.