•
E-commerce
•
Gartner:
2000 prediction for 2004: 7.3 T$
•
Revision:2001 prediction for 2004: 5.9 T$
drastic loss?
Growth and Perception
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
...
Realistic growth
Perceived
growth
Invisible
growth
Extrapolated
growth
Disap-
pointment
Combi-
natorial
growth
Perceived initial growth
Perception level
Examples
Artificial Intelligence
Databases
Neural networks
E-commerce
50 companies, each after
20% of the market
Failures